Outlook

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted not only economic activity around the world, but also the way people lived and worked during 2020.
In this context, the geographical diversification of the Group, its integrated business model along the entire value chain, a sound financial structure and a high level of digitalization have enabled Enel to display considerable resilience, which is reflected in our financial position and performance for the year.
In November 2020, the Group presented the Strategic Plan, providing a vision of the evolution of the business over the next ten years.
In particular, the new Strategic Plan describes the adoption of two business models: a traditional “Ownership” model, in which digital platforms are promoters of the business to support the profitability of investments, and a “Stewardship” model, which catalyzes investments by third parties in collaboration with Enel or in the context of business-generating platforms.
Through these two business models, in 2021-2030 Enel will invest over €150 billion through the Ownership business model and an additional €10 billion through the Stewardship business model, while at the same time mobilizing some €30 billion in additional third-party investment.
With these investments, it is expected that between 2020 and 2030 the Group’s ordinary EBITDA will grow at a CAGR of 5%-6%, with an ordinary profit growing at a CAGR of 6%-7%.
By promoting decarbonization, electrification and platform migration processes, the Group also plans to create shared and sustainable value for all stakeholders, for example:

  • pursuing an 80% reduction in direct CO2 emissions compared with 2017 in a strategy that will reduce extraction by about 200 million barrels of oil equivalent;
  • saving consumers about 25% on their total energy bills while simultaneously reducing their emissions;
  • investing in digitalization and the creation of platforms to offer a level of service three times higher than the current level, with a system average duration interruption index (SAIDI) falling to about 100 minutes in 2030;
  • generating over €240 billion of gross domestic product in the countries in which the Group operates, through local investments in generation and electrification.

In 2021-2023, the Group expects to invest around €40 billion directly, of which €38 billion through the Ownership business model and around €2 billion through the Stewardship business model, while mobilizing €8 billion in investment from third parties.
With regard to the investments planned within the framework of the Ownership business model:

  • more than half will be dedicated to Global Power Generation, with approximately €17 billion allocated to increasing renewable generation capacity, which will rise to 60 GW on a consolidated basis in 2023;
  • about 43% will be dedicated to Infrastructure and Networks. The acceleration of investments is expected to lead to an increase in the Group’s RAB, which will reach €48 billion in 2023;
  • the remainder will be dedicated to the Customers business: the customer value of the business-to-consumer segment is expected to increase by about 30%, compared with an increase of some 45% in the business-to-business segment, thanks to the elimination of regulated rates, mainly in Italy, and the trend of electrification of energy consumption, which will promote “beyond commodity” services.

Investments under the Stewardship business model will mainly be dedicated to renewable energy, as well as to fiber optics, e-transport and flexibility services.
Over 90% of Enel’s investments on a consolidated basis will be in line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Furthermore, according to Enel’s initial calculations, between 80% and 90% of its investments on a consolidated basis will be aligned with the European taxonomy criteria thanks to its substantial contribution to climate change mitigation.
Furthermore, over the period covered by the Plan, Enel will implement a simple, predictable and attractive dividend policy: shareholders will receive a fixed, guaranteed and increasing dividend per share (DPS) over the next three years, with the aim of reaching €0.43 per share by 2023.

In 2021, the following are expected:

  • an acceleration of investments in renewable energy, especially in Latin America and North America, to support industrial growth and as part of the decarbonization policies followed by the Group;
  • an increase in investments to improve the quality and resilience of distribution networks, especially in Italy and Latin America, as well as their further digitalization;
  • an increase in investments dedicated to the electrification of energy consumption, especially in Italy, with the aim of enhancing the growth of the customer base and achieving continuous efficiency gains, supported by the creation of global business platforms.

Based on the foregoing, the financial targets on which the Group’s 2021-2023 Plan is based are reported below.

FINANCIAL TARGETS

 

2020 (1)

2021

2022

2023

CAGR

2020-2023

Ordinary EBITDA (€ billions)

17.9

18.7-19.3

19.7-20.3

20.7-21.3

+5%/+6%

Ordinary profit (€ billions)

5.2

5.4-5.6

5.9-6.1

6.5-6.7

+8%/+9%

Dividend per share (€)

0.358

0.38

0.40

0.43

~6%

 

(1) The dividend policy for 2020 provides for the payment of a dividend equal to the higher of €0.358 per share and 70% of the Group’s ordinary net income.